Data & Trackers
A conservative, sourced overview of active conflicts. Each entry is reviewed against named sources — no predictions, no invented figures. This table is the seed of a larger trackers section.
| Conflict | Region | Status summary | Last reviewed | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia–Ukraine war | Ukraine | Full-scale war continues. On Sep 29–30 Russia launched a massive combined strike — ~190 drones plus ballistic missiles overnight, then 285 more drones on Sep 30 — aimed primarily at Kyiv's energy infrastructure, damaging the Trypillya thermal plant and forcing emergency outages; ISW assesses this opens Russia's Winter 2026–2027 strike campaign meant to degrade Ukraine's energy security and force capitulation. An Oct 1 follow-up injured one person in Kyiv and one in Odesa. On Oct 2–4, Russia struck Kyiv's Dnipro bridges for a fourth straight day: drone hits damaged the Southern and Northern bridges' road surfaces and trolleybus cables, suspending traffic; Russia's Defense Ministry confirmed the strikes, claiming military-logistics use. A Russian drone hit the Northern Bridge again on Oct 4 during German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's unannounced solidarity visit to Kyiv, per CNN; Merz pledged continued support, and the CNN wire reported German officials saying Berlin would release €1 billion in military aid plus €350 million for energy repairs. On Oct 3, President Zelensky told Reuters that Ukraine will double down on attacking Russian oil refineries in response to a new Russian 'doctrine' of airstrikes — documents obtained by Ukrainian intelligence show Moscow authorizing attacks on infrastructure, logistics, roads, schools, and hospitals to force people to leave cities, Zelensky said; the Kremlin was not available to comment, and both sides deny deliberately targeting civilians. Zelensky said the 'Vivaldi' counteroffensive had recaptured around 140 sq km in Donbas and was ongoing; Ukraine announced the first combat use of its FP-7 ballistic missile (~250 km range), with the longer-range FP-9 expected this autumn. Trump last month urged Ukraine not to hit Russian oil installations, saying it was sending global diesel prices surging. On Oct 5, Russia carried out massive overnight air strikes on industrial and port infrastructure in Ukraine's Odesa region — hitting Vylkove port, fuel depots at Chornomorsk and cargo vessels, per Russia's Defense Ministry — while a strike on Kharkiv killed one person and injured six, per the city's mayor; Governor Oleh Kiper said all resulting fires had been extinguished (Reuters). Separately, Ukraine faces its biggest budget crisis since 2022: the war now costs ~$190 million a day, ArcelorMittal has suspended its Kryvyi Rih steel complex after ballistic-missile strikes, grain exports fell 36.6% year-on-year in September, and Kyiv needs $56 billion to plug this year's gap, per a Reuters special report. Diplomatically, Zelensky said on Oct 4 that the US is pushing for technical-level trilateral talks with Russia by the end of October — possibly in the UAE — with Ukraine ready to take part; Kyiv is waiting on Moscow's response. India also stepped up its mediation bid, with FM Jaishankar focusing on Black Sea shipping, grain and energy. On Oct 7, Russia carried out what it called a 'massive' overnight strike across Ukraine, primarily targeting the country's power grid — Ukrainian authorities said dozens were killed, per Reuters. On Oct 8, a Russian bomb struck a street in Kramatorsk where two city buses were operating: at least 12 people killed and 14 wounded, Ukrainian authorities said via Reuters, with no independent confirmation of the toll at publication. Separately, Reuters reported on Oct 8 that US and Russian officials — including special envoy Jared Kushner and Putin adviser Kirill Dmitriev — have held talks about bringing a US investor into the Nord Stream gas pipelines; the White House said there had been 'no Nord Stream discussions recently.' On Oct 8, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the war a 'dangerous stalemate' during a visit to Portugal and said Washington would keep working toward a settlement but would not 'invest in pointless processes'; Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian news agencies the next day that Moscow agreed with the assessment. US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Ukrainian representatives in Miami on Oct 9 — chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov, intelligence chief Rustem Umerov and negotiator David Arakhamia — with national security advisers from the UK, France and Germany plus NATO and EU officials invited, to try to produce a unified peace proposal covering security guarantees and a post-war prosperity plan, per an American source via Reuters; Zelenskiy said he expected Europeans to join the talks in the coming days and that air defences would be on the agenda after more than 70 were killed in strikes over two days. The same week, both sides escalated attacks on economic targets: Yandex said on Oct 9 that a drone attack had completely disabled several modules at its data centre in Russia's Kaluga region — the second such strike in two days after a Thursday hit on its Ryazan centre — while Russia continued its strike campaign on Ukrainian data centres and telecom infrastructure. On Oct 10, a Russian glide-bomb strike on residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia killed 20 people including three children, President Zelensky said (AAP; CNN later reported 23 killed including four children; figures evolved through the day as rescue work continued, with no independent verification). Zelensky tied the strike to the US–Russia diesel deal. On Oct 9, Trump announced a deal with Putin to release Russian diesel onto world markets — 300,000 tons immediately, 500,000 in November — with the US Treasury issuing a general license through April 7, 2027; Russia partially lifted its diesel export ban on Oct 10, per the AAP. Zelensky called the deal 'a weak decision of strong partners' and an 'investment in a war that must be ended, not prolonged,' while a senior Ukrainian official told the Financial Times that Kyiv will keep striking Russian refineries — 'We will burn [Russian] refineries.' On Oct 11, Ukraine struck a third Yandex data centre in four days, in the Vladimir region, per Reuters; the AP attributed the attack to Ukraine while Yandex confirmed only a drone strike. On Oct 25, ISW assessed that Ukrainian forces had liberated Perebudova, Komar and Fedorivka in the Oleksandrivka direction, forcing Russia to redeploy elite naval infantry and tank elements to stop the counterattacks, and that Ukraine's jet-powered drone interception rate slipped only from 77% to about 74% during the mid-October Starshield restrictions. Overnight Oct 25-26, Russian strikes injured six people in Zaporizhzhia and the Chernihiv region, Ukrainian officials said via Reuters. Zelenskiy said Ukraine would halt refinery strikes if Russia stopped hitting power plants. On Oct 29, a Russian drone struck Dnipro's main railway station as passengers boarded, killing 14 people and wounding 10, Ukrainian officials said; at least 19 people were killed across Ukraine that day (CNN; Reuters). ISW's Oct 28 assessment recorded Ukrainian advances southeast of Oleksandrivka and northeast of Hulyaipole, Russian advances north of Kostyantynivka, and continued observance of the limited Kherson (Oleshky) ceasefire. On Nov 1, Russian strikes on power infrastructure in four regions left hundreds of thousands of households without power for a second straight night, Zelenskiy said, while a Ukrainian drone attack damaged an industrial facility in Russia's Kstovo district amid reports a major refinery was hit, Reuters reported. On Nov 2, Ukraine's General Staff said Russia had used the six-day Oleshky humanitarian ceasefire — which expired at 2100 GMT on Sunday after nearly 800 people were evacuated — to rotate units, fortify positions and bring in ammunition; the Kremlin disputed the claim, and shelling and drone attacks resumed across 16 Kherson-region settlements, Reuters reported. On Nov 5, police put the Komyshuvakha aid-centre toll at 42, with up to 33 people still buried under the rubble, after Reuters-verified bodycam footage from a killed police officer recorded the moments before a second strike destroyed the shelter where residents were hiding (Reuters; Kyiv Post). The same day, Putin envoy Kirill Dmitriev attended a White House event hosted by First Lady Melania Trump convening Russian and Ukrainian representatives — the first in-person US–Russia contact since the midterms — ahead of the Nov 10 Abu Dhabi trilateral (Reuters; White House; AP). | 2026-11-05 |
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| Israel–Gaza war | Middle East | A U.S.-brokered ceasefire in effect since October 10, 2025 holds in name but implementation is stalled: Israeli forces control over half of Gaza, Hamas has not disarmed, and reconstruction has not begun. Strikes continue: Israeli strikes killed at least five Palestinians in Gaza City on September 30 (four in a van strike in Tel al-Hawa, one woman in an apartment strike) per Gaza health officials via Reuters. On Oct 3, an Israeli airstrike on the al-Asala apartment building in Gaza City's Remal neighborhood killed at least five Palestinians and seriously injured at least six others, per Gaza health officials and al-Shifa Hospital staff via Reuters and Al Jazeera; the Israeli military did not comment. At least 1,400 Palestinians, mostly civilians, have been killed since the ceasefire took effect, per Gaza health officials; Palestinian authorities put the death toll since October 2023 above 74,000. On Oct 25, Israeli strikes hit the Islamic University of Gaza in Gaza City twice within hours: an earlier drone strike injured seven female students and a second strike killed three university staff while students were in class, AFP and Al Jazeera reported; four more Palestinians were killed elsewhere in Gaza that day. Gaza's health ministry puts the toll since the October 2025 ceasefire at 1,551 killed and the total since October 2023 at 74,544, per Al Jazeera. On Oct 26, the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry reported that Israel had continued to commit genocidal acts in Gaza after the ceasefire, with the intent to destroy the Palestinians in Gaza in whole or in part, and that the Yellow Line had pushed further into Gaza; Israel's mission in Geneva dismissed the report as part of a misinformation campaign, Reuters reported. On Nov 1, Israeli attacks killed at least eight Palestinians, including five police officers, and on Nov 2 strikes in Khan Younis and Al-Mussadar killed at least three more people and wounded six, taking the number killed since the ceasefire to at least 1,580, Gaza health officials said via Reuters; Israel now controls about two-thirds of Gaza, with nearly all of its more than 2 million residents crowded into the remaining third. | 2026-11-02 |
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| Sudan civil war | Africa | War between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces since April 2023. On Sep 26 army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan publicly rejected Washington's reported condition — a U.S. visa for UNGA attendance in exchange for accepting a 90-day ceasefire proposed by U.S. adviser Massad Boulos — telling a Khartoum rally his goal was to 'eliminate this militia, no matter the cost,' per Reuters. The RSF's drone campaign on El Obeid intensified sharply Sep 24–28: strikes attributed to the RSF killed 13 civilians (incl. 8 children) in Al-Jallabiya, knocked out a power substation and fuel station, and forced hospitals and water stations to close per UN OCHA. Military sources reported an unprecedented RSF buildup around El Obeid ahead of a possible ground offensive. The UN describes the world's largest displacement crisis, with over 11 million displaced per UNHCR. On Oct 2, the army said it had captured al-Mazroub in North Kordofan after fierce fighting — one of the RSF's most important positions in the state, per army special forces spokesman Mohamed Deidan, who told Anadolu its capture was a 'major turning point' in cutting RSF supply lines to RSF-held West Kordofan. On Oct 3, the army's Fourth Infantry Division announced a 'knockout blow' against the RSF and its ally SPLM-N in Blue Nile state's Minza and Bashkarkad areas — a claim with no independent confirmation and no RSF comment — while Blue Nile's governor said the RSF launched drone attacks on his residence that were intercepted, again with no RSF comment. Al Jazeera's analysis of ACLED data found ~19.7% of the war's recorded attacks have occurred in Kordofan, second only to Khartoum; ~19.5 million people face acute hunger per the IPC. On Oct 6, army chief al-Burhan publicly rejected negotiations, vowing to retake 'every inch' of territory and continue the 'military option' until the RSF was removed from Sudan, per Al Jazeera. On Oct 7, a local charity group (the Dar Hamar Emergency Committee) said an RSF attack killed 10 civilians in West Kordofan; the IOM said more than 5,500 people were displaced from villages in Blue Nile state over three days. The US envoy Massad Boulos said peace must come through a Sudanese-owned dialogue toward a civilian-led government, while the US State Department said neither side represents legitimate governance. UNHCR said in an August 2026 assessment that more than 2.5 million people had returned to Khartoum State (against a pre-war 9.4 million) but that 'relatively few' had returned to homes in an adequate liveable condition. On Oct 26, one year after El Fasher fell following an eighteen-month siege, the UK sanctioned 15 senior commanders from both the RSF and the SAF for suspected atrocities including conflict-related sexual violence, and announced £5 million for survivors and £10 million in humanitarian funding; UK-funded Centre for Information Resilience reporting found the El Fasher siege tactics — systematic starvation, sexual violence, drone attacks on civilian infrastructure and obstruction of aid — are still being used across Sudan by both sides. On Nov 2, Khartoum said it had filed complaints against Ethiopia with the UN Security Council and the African Union's Peace and Security Council, alleging the RSF launched drone attacks from Ethiopian territory against civilian sites and power stations — a Sudanese report alleging 70 attacks since February involving 187 drones that killed or wounded 484 civilians; Ethiopia denied the allegations and said it respects Sudan's sovereignty, Al Jazeera reported. On Nov 2, drone strikes reported against three more electricity substations — New Halfa and Aroma in Kassala state and al-Ghazali in Northern State — brought reported strikes on the electricity network to 18 in a week, Al Jazeera reported; on Nov 3, UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator Denise Brown warned the strikes appear to target civilian infrastructure systematically, said hundreds of aid trucks were stranded for lack of fuel and that dialysis treatment for 25 people stopped at a hospital outside Khartoum, and said she did not know where the strikes originate from. | 2026-11-04 |
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| Myanmar civil war | Myanmar | Nationwide civil war since the February 2021 coup. A military airstrike on the town of Kyauktaw, Rakhine State on September 28 killed 50 people and wounded at least 58, per the Arakan Army and a local aid worker — the deadliest such attack in Rakhine since a December hospital bombing; Reuters could not independently verify the figures. The Arakan Army accused the military of deliberately targeting markets, schools, and residential buildings and vowed to retaliate. Reuters estimates the conflict has killed around 100,000 people and displaced over 3.5 million. Fighting and repeated junta airstrikes along the Myeik–Dawei highway in Tanintharyi Region from Oct 24 forced residents of around 14 villages to flee to forests and plantations, with phone networks down and casualties unconfirmed, the Human Rights Foundation of Monland (HURFOM) reported on Oct 27; resistance forces held the Thayetchaung section of the highway. In Rakhine, an ISP-Myanmar assessment found the junta's multi-front offensive against the Arakan Army — some 2,000 troops with naval and air support — had killed more than 70 civilians without making territorial gains. | 2026-10-29 | |
| Red Sea shipping attacks | Middle East | Houthi attacks on commercial shipping began in November 2023 and drew a multinational naval response (Operation Prosperity Guardian, EU mission Aspides) plus UNSC Resolution 2722. Traffic through Bab el-Mandeb fell to below half of normal levels; attacks subsided in 2025 but traffic had not recovered. September 2026 changed the picture: the Houthis' Red Sea coast offensive captured Mokha and Red Sea islands (per AP, aided by Iranian experts), extending their reach to the Bab el-Mandeb strait; UN envoy Hans Grundberg said Red Sea shipping attacks are 'alarming' and should concern the Security Council. On Oct 2, Reuters reported — citing six regional and Western officials, with Saudi, Yemeni, Houthi and US spokespeople not responding — that Saudi Arabia is planning an offensive in the coming weeks against the Houthis: options include a focused coastal push to secure the Red Sea shipping route or a multi-front assault (Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz, Al-Jawf), with more than 100,000 Yemeni troops potentially mobilized; the US is providing intelligence including targeting information, and Trump has rebuffed Saudi requests for direct US strikes. France announced it will send defensive systems and troops to protect the Red Sea port of Yanbu. On Oct 8, Reuters reported attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz had reached their highest levels of the war: the latest strike came on Oct 7, when a tanker was hit by multiple projectiles 51 nautical miles north of Qatar, with casualties reported by the UK Maritime Trade Operations; vessel traffic through Hormuz fell to its lowest in more than two months, and Gulf stock markets fell (Saudi TASI -0.9%). In the Red Sea, the Houthis seized effective control of the Bab al-Mandeb strait in September, CNN reported; Yemeni government forces have since claimed to have retaken some of those positions — each side's account contested. The war's escalation reached Saudi aviation directly on Oct 8: Houthi-claimed ballistic-missile strikes hit Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport twice on Thursday, and Saudi civil aviation authorities said on Oct 9 that three Saudi nationals were killed and several people were injured — Saudia identified one of the dead as its pilot, Captain Hamoud Ali Al-Kalthami, and confirmed an aircraft was damaged on the ground with no passengers aboard (CNN; Reuters). Lufthansa suspended Riyadh flights through Oct 16 and three Indian airlines (IndiGo, Air India, Akasa) through Oct 9–10, Reuters reported; Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi warned Saudi Arabia to prepare for a long conflict. The Saudi-led coalition said it responded by striking 82 Houthi military targets in Saada, Hodeidah, Al-Jawf and Marib. Budget carrier Wizz Air scrapped its planned winter return to Abu Dhabi and Dubai (Oct 25–Mar 27) as extended regional airspace restrictions made the routes 'commercially unviable', Gulf Business reported. On Oct 10, a third missile strike that week hit Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport, killing 12 and wounding 309 per Saudi civil aviation authorities; the Houthis renewed warnings against using Saudi airports on Oct 11, per Reuters. On Oct 26, the Houthis claimed new attacks on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport and Saudi Arabia's East-West crude oil pumping stations; the Saudi-led coalition said its air defences intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile launched toward Riyadh and that its forces destroyed ballistic missile launchers, tunnels and a missile storage facility in Yemen, Reuters and AFP reported. There was no Saudi confirmation of the claimed airport or pumping-station attacks. On Oct 28, the Houthis attacked Aden airport after warning people to evacuate it, Yemeni government forces said, and early on Oct 29 the Saudi-led coalition said it destroyed a ballistic missile fired toward the kingdom's eastern region, Reuters reported. | 2026-10-29 |
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| Eastern Libya executions | Africa | The Libyan Arab Armed Forces (LAAF), the de facto authorities in eastern Libya, have resumed executions for the first time since 2010, ending a 15-year de facto moratorium on the death penalty. At least 30 people were executed between Aug 23 and Sep 9, 2026 after what Amnesty International called 'grossly unfair, torture-tainted and secretive trials before military courts,' and at least 50 men under death sentences remain at imminent risk at Gernada military prison. UNSMIL independently confirmed 'more than 30' executions, demanded an immediate halt, and has held follow-up talks in Benghazi with judicial authorities on the cases. The toll has since risen: UNSMIL head Hanna Tetteh told the UN Security Council that 58 individuals convicted of terrorism-related offences had been executed in Benghazi over the previous two months, reiterating the mission's Sep 16 call to suspend further executions and review procedures, and noting eastern authorities had agreed to facilitate access to case files and detention facilities. On Oct 12, Libya Crimes Watch, Amnesty International, the ICJ and OMCT jointly wrote to seven governments and the EU urging urgent diplomatic action to halt further executions; Human Rights Watch said at least 50 more people remain at imminent risk. | 2026-10-29 | |
| M23–DRC conflict | Africa | Clashes between government forces and the M23 rebels (30,000–40,000 strong, widely reported to be backed by Rwanda, which denies it) continue in eastern DRC despite the Doha peace framework and the December 2025 Washington Accords — the UN Security Council met on Sep 29, 2026 as fighting persisted. Over 4.3 million people are displaced across the Kivus; an Ebola outbreak has infected 8,000+ people and killed 3,901. MONUSCO's mandate comes up for renewal in December. On Oct 15, UN Special Envoy Huang Xia told the Security Council that a genuine ceasefire 'remains elusive,' with AFC/M23 — backed by the Rwandan army, per the UN — continuing to expand and consolidate control in North and South Kivu, and clashes continuing in Mwenga, Fizi, Masisi, Lubero and Walikale. On Oct 28, the United States sanctioned Rwanda's Ministry of Defence and the Zigama Credit and Savings Society, accusing Kigali of directing thousands of troops to fight beside M23 and of processing tens of millions of dollars for the rebels; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Rwanda must halt its support and withdraw its troops, Rwanda denied backing the rebels and pointed to unmet FDLR commitments, and Kinshasa welcomed the sanctions, Reuters reported. | 2026-10-29 | |
| Yemen civil war (Saudi–Houthi escalation) | Middle East | Most serious escalation between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-aligned Houthis since the 2022 UN-brokered truce. On Oct 2, Yemen's internationally recognized government carried out 20 airstrikes in three hours against Houthi movements, personnel and equipment in Taiz province, and the government said it had also conducted a 'high-value targeting operation' in Sanaa and struck 11 targets in Saada; ~19 roads into Taiz were closed. On Oct 3, Yemen's government forces struck Houthi targets in Sanaa and Saada in retaliation for Houthi attacks on Saudi shipping and oil infrastructure. Separately on Oct 2, Reuters reported — citing six regional and Western officials, with Saudi, Yemeni, Houthi and US spokespeople not responding — that Saudi Arabia is planning an offensive in the coming weeks against the Houthis to retake the Bab el-Mandeb strait: options include a focused coastal push or synchronized attacks on multiple fronts (Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz, Al-Jawf), with more than 100,000 Yemeni troops potentially mobilized, Yemeni forces overseen by Riyadh and supported by Saudi air strikes; the US is providing intelligence including targeting information. The trigger: the Saudi-led coalition accused the Houthis of a Sept 29 drone strike on the Taibah power station in Medina that supplies the Prophet's Mosque (one transformer out; the Houthis denied it, calling the claim a 'lie'). Taiz is strategic: unchallenged Houthi control would give the group full control of Yemen's north and a tighter grip on the Red Sea coast. On Oct 5, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan activated the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement at an emergency meeting in Riyadh — the first invocation since it was signed on Aug 7 — agreeing to rapid deployment of military forces to the kingdom, per the joint statement (TBS News). On Oct 7, Pakistan's military confirmed to CNN that Pakistani troops are stationed in Saudi Arabia — the first explicit acknowledgement; the head of the Pakistani military's media wing said any involvement would be defensive and declined force numbers. Separately, Reuters reported on Oct 7 that Syria is considering military assistance to Saudi Arabia, citing a US official and a Syrian military official, with an on-record Syrian diplomat emphasizing domestic priorities. The trigger for the alliance moves: Houthi attacks on Saudi airports this week killed three people — one Sudanese resident at Riyadh's King Khalid airport (ballistic missile, per Houthi claim), two women (Moroccan and Algerian nationals) at Abha airport — with 36 wounded, Saudi authorities said; Houthi missiles also targeted Aden airport, diverting a Yemenia Airways flight. The US Mission in Saudi Arabia updated its security alert, warning the conflict 'has the potential to escalate.' On Oct 10, a missile struck a terminal at Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport — the third strike on the airport that week — killing 12 people and wounding 309, per Saudi civil aviation authorities; the dead included four Saudis and nationals of Bangladesh, the US, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Palestine and Sudan, per CNN and the AP. CNN called it the kingdom's deadliest attack in more than a decade. The Saudi-led coalition blamed the Houthis and said a passenger terminal had been targeted. On Oct 11, the Houthis renewed warnings to airlines, airport workers and travellers against using Saudi airports and airspace — except Mecca and Medina — saying the kingdom 'bore responsibility for failed interceptions,' per Reuters and CNN. The airport suspended operations with more than 600 flights cancelled, per CNN. Trump said he plans to speak with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and that the US 'may' join strikes on the Houthis, after rejecting two Saudi requests for US strikes last month, per CNN. India and Pakistan condemned the attack on Oct 11, per LiveMint. On Oct 26, the Houthis claimed a ballistic-missile attack on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport — which had resumed flights at two terminals only on Sunday — and drone attacks on East-West oil pumping stations, while the coalition said it intercepted a missile toward Riyadh and struck Houthi launchers, tunnels and a missile depot in Yemen, Reuters and AFP reported; the claimed airport and pumping-station hits were not confirmed by Saudi Arabia. On Oct 28, the Houthis attacked Aden airport in southern Yemen after warning people to evacuate the facility, Yemeni government forces said; flights were diverted and the airport was deserted, Reuters and AP reported. Early on Oct 29, the Saudi-led coalition said it had destroyed a ballistic missile fired by the Houthis toward the kingdom's eastern region, Reuters reported. | 2026-10-29 |
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| Ethiopia–Eritrea tensions | Africa | Biggest Horn-of-Africa escalation since the 2020–2022 war. On Oct 1, Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and declared 10 Eritrean diplomats persona non grata (48 hours to leave), citing Eritrea's 'direct and indirect acts of hostility'; Eritrea reciprocated by severing all diplomatic ties. Ethiopia also expelled an Egyptian diplomat and Cairo responded in kind. Hours earlier, overnight explosions were heard in Addis Ababa — an opposition-linked source claimed drone strikes on the capital (Reuters could not independently verify). Renewed fighting in Tigray, Amhara and Afar since last week pits federal forces against a TPLF-led alliance. On Oct 4, Ethiopian government forces and allied militias regained control of Mekelle, the Tigray capital, three sources told Reuters — a claim the TPLF-led opposition publicly acknowledged, announcing in a Facebook statement that the regional government would be 'temporarily moved out of Mekelle.' The government has not issued an official statement; reporting is complicated by communication blackouts and no independent casualty account was available. The AU Commission urged maximum restraint. On Oct 4, former Tigray Interim Administration president Abraham Belay told Ethiopian state media that preparations were underway to establish a new interim administration in Tigray — organized from the kebele level upward with community participation — with the aim of holding regional elections within months, per Al Jazeera. The same day, Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan issued the Alamein Joint Declaration at New Alamein: affirming international-law principles on transboundary rivers (non-harm, prior notification/consultation/agreement with downstream states), rejecting unilateral measures harming downstream Nile states, asserting Red Sea governance belongs to coastal states, rejecting recognition of Somaliland, and backing Sudan's unity and national institutions — language widely read as a four-country rebuke of Ethiopia's Nile-dam and sea-access policies, per Al Jazeera and Kulu Media. On Oct 16, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed named a six-month caretaker government for Tigray, tasked with stabilising the region, restoring services, returning displaced people and preparing elections within six months, after federal forces and allied militias retook large parts of Tigray including Mekelle; Addis Ababa accuses Eritrea of backing the TPLF-led rebels, which Eritrea denies, Reuters reported. Around 750,000 Tigrayans remained internally displaced as of February, per UNHCR. In southern Ethiopia, clashes between Oromia and Somali regional forces around the border town of Moyale from Oct 22 drove up to an estimated 50,000 people across the border into Kenya, UNHCR said on Oct 28, with food the most urgent need. | 2026-10-29 |
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| South Sudan conflict | Africa | Sliding back toward civil war even as elections are set for December 22, 2026 — the first national vote since independence in 2011. The 2018 peace deal has effectively collapsed: Riek Machar was placed under house arrest in March 2025 and charged with treason (which he denies); his SPLM-IO declared the deal 'abrogated'; opposition forces advanced in Upper Nile and Jonglei in early 2026. On Sep 22, President Kiir signed election-law amendments removing constitution/census prerequisites and, on Sep 23, dissolved the power-sharing government, installing a caretaker administration while retaining full powers. The AU's C5 met Sep 29 to press for elections without another transition extension. ~9.3 million people need humanitarian aid per the UN. On Oct 27, the UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan told the General Assembly that the political settlement meant to prevent another war is being 'systematically dismantled': the permanent constitution and census preconditions were dropped unilaterally in July, the September amendments and Kiir's Sep 22 dissolution concentrated authority in a caretaker answerable to the president alone — a 'constitutional coup through legislative means' — Riek Machar remains detained and on trial with opposition actors excluded, fighting has resumed with tens of thousands of fighters outside a unified command, and elections under these conditions risk triggering a wider war. The election commission also faces a severe funding shortfall, with only a fraction of the funds it says it needs secured as of October. | 2026-10-29 |
Entries appear here only when their status can be verified from named, reputable sources, listed per row. Summaries describe the situation as reported — they are not forecasts. Figures appear only when a named source states them. The table is reviewed regularly; the "last reviewed" column shows when each entry was last checked.
