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Situation maps

Conflict maps

Analyst-annotated situation maps for the conflicts we cover — each one dated, sourced, and drawn from our research briefs. Control zones are approximate and front lines shift; these maps are schematic, not precise cartography.

Vintage-style desk globes — a cartographer's tools. Photo: Pexels
Vintage-style desk globes — a cartographer's tools. Photo: Pexels

Situation map

Ukraine: the eastern front, October 2026

FORTRESS BELTKyivKharkivKupyanskLymanSlovyanskKramatorskKostyantynivkaPokrovsk — main-effort axisDonetsk city — occupied since 2014LuhanskMariupolZaporizhzhia (city) — Ukrainian-heldOrikhivKherson (city) — Ukrainian-heldOdesaBELARUSRUSSIAPOLANDROMANIADNIPROSEA OF AZOVBLACK SEALyman sector: no Russian advancesOct 30–31; Ukrainians advancedNE of Borova (geolocated, ISW).Heaviest fighting:Pokrovsk–Dobropillya axis +Fortress Belt approaches.Oct: small Russian gains SE ofDobropillya; infiltration elsewhere.ISW: Russian “encirclement” claimsfabricated — “beautiful reports”;nearest Russian ground ~10 kmfrom Dobropillya.Mud season: rains slowed Russiandrones near Kupyansk — motorcycles,ATVs & foot infiltration.Winter 2026–27 campaign began Sep 29–30:~190 drones + missiles vs Kyiv energy grid;Trypillya plant damaged; outages — largestenergy strike since ~Apr 2026.Oleshky, Oct 27–31: the longest localceasefire since 2022 — residents of theoccupied town evacuated to Ukrainian-held ground (ISW, Oct 31).Russian-heldUkrainian-heldcontestedfront line (approx.)
Schematic — not precise cartography. Pokrovsk and Dobropillya remain the main-effort axis, with small Russian gains southeast of Dobropillya in October and no advances at Lyman or east of Slovyansk on Oct 30–31. In Kherson oblast, the Oleshky local ceasefire of Oct 27–31 — the longest since 2022 — let residents evacuate to Ukrainian-held ground. Read the explainer

Situation map

Gaza & the West Bank: the “ceasefire” map

MEDITERRANEANYELLOW LINEIDF-CONTROLLEDDeir al BalahKhan YounisRafah“under Israeli control”ISRAELEGYPT / SINAIJeninTulkarmNur ShamsNablusBethlehemRamallahSouth 'AnataE1 →JORDANWest Bank camps emptied:Jenin, Nur Shams, Tulkarmdepopulated early 2025; returnstill barred. October: 397 settlerattacks — worst month since 2006.E1 flashpoint: Bedouin demolitionsat South 'Anata, next to planned E1settlement expansion E of Jerusalem.The Yellow Line is moving:markers shifted W near AshShuja'iyyeh (Oct 11); new blocks inDeir al Balah — <40% accessible.Ceasefire in name: IDF holds over half;Hamas still armed; no new government.$2.45B Board of Peace plan (Sep 23) —stalled on disarmament sequencing.Aid is the chokepoint: EducationCluster got 13% of its $170.8M;the 2026 appeal ~40% funded;shelter clusters at 2% and 26%.Rafah: EUBAM mandate renewed toJun 2027; new head Col. VittorioStingo (Nov 1). >13,000 crossings —supervised, not a reopening.9 in 10 Gazans displaced — 1,493 dead,5,299 injured since Oct 2025 (OCHA,Oct 15); ~950,000 at flood risk.IDF-controlledHamas-presenceYellow Line (approx.)GAZA / W. BANK
Schematic — not precise cartography. The Yellow Line keeps moving: markers shifted west near Ash Shuja'iyyeh on Oct 11 and new blocks appeared in Deir al Balah, while strikes continued across Gaza. In the West Bank, October recorded 397 settler attacks — the highest month since UN records began in 2006. Read the explainer

Situation map

Lebanon & Syria: the northern front

MEDITERRANEANSEC. ZONEBLUE LINEEX-SDF ZONESuwaydaMt Hermon (peak held)EUPHRATESRmeichNaqoura (UNIFIL HQ)HasakahDamascusTÜRKIYEIRAQJORDANUNIFIL is leaving: 7,565 troops departby Dec 31, 2026; the US says UNIFIL“will not be maintained” in itscurrent form. Rmeich's ~6,000 stillsupplied by UNIFIL-escorted convoys.Two Yellow Lines: Gaza's ceasefire line≠ Lebanon's occupation boundary.Different lines, different wars.October: Israeli strikes + demolitionscontinue across the south; the lastclaimed Hezbollah attack was Sep 27— none reported since (CIS Index).Disarmament deadlock: Tampa talksresumed Oct 20; the EU's new LAFtraining mission (Oct 12) is “not aUNIFIL replacement”. Hezbollah refuses.War reignited Mar 2026:Hezbollah rocket endedthe 2024 ceasefire;60+ villages razed.Suwayda: Oct 21 — a National Guarddrone hit a govt post near Tel Hadid(reported). Internal lines not drawn.UNGA Sep 23: al-Sharaa demands Israeliwithdrawal to Dec 8, 2024 lines; Katz:forces stay “as long as threats persist”.Israel's Syria footprint:9 installations, Mt Hermon peak;Sijil Center: 267 violationsin Syria in August alone.Israeli-held zoneDamascus-heldcontestedYellow Line (approx.)LEBANON / SYRIA
Schematic — not precise cartography. UNIFIL's 7,565 troops depart by Dec 31, 2026 and the US says the mission will not be maintained in its current form; Tampa talks resumed Oct 20 and the EU approved a Lebanese Army training mission that is not a UNIFIL replacement. In Syria, Israeli incursions in Quneitra and Daraa continued and Suwayda's National Guard reportedly struck a government post on Oct 21. Read the explainer

Situation map

Sudan: a formalized split

KhartoumPort SudanEl-Fasher — fell Oct 2025El ObeidSodari (contested)DillingBabanusaEd DamazinCHADRED SEAS. SUDANDrone warfare defines this phase —both sides hit civilians: RSF droneon an aid convoy (Feb); SAF droneson a Ghubaysh market (~28 killed).Foreign hands (UN, Oct 28):a network in Chad, Puntland, Libya+ the UAE backs the RSF — arms,logistics + foreign fighters.UAE denies; UN: embargo all Sudan.Displacement: ~8.6M IDPs;~19.5M face crisis-level hunger;famine at Zamzam, ≥5 localities.IOM (Sep 25): supply pipelinecould run dry within 2 weeks.A formalized split:SAF north/east/center vs RSF Darfur;Kordofan + Blue Nile are the seams.No ceasefire anywhere.El Obeid — “the next El-Fasher”:October: record drone attacks oncivilians (UN, Oct 28); ~30% ofhospitals working. SAF retookal-Mazroub (Oct 2), NW of the city.Death toll: ACLED 58,000–62,000;true toll likely far higher.SAF-heldRSF-heldcontestedSUDAN
Schematic — not precise cartography. SAF holds the north, east and center; the RSF holds Darfur; Kordofan and Blue Nile are the active seams. In October SAF retook al-Mazroub northwest of El Obeid, UN investigators reported a record month of drone attacks on civilians and a supply network spanning Chad, Puntland, Libya and the UAE behind the RSF. Read the explainer

Situation map

The Sahel: record violence, April's turning point

BamakoOuagadougouMopti / SévaréNionoKidal — retaken Oct 6, no fightNiameyGaoTessit — JNIM-claimedAoréma / KlioALGERIAApril 2026 — the turning point:JNIM + FLA hit Kati, Bamako airport,Mopti, Sévaré, Gao simultaneously(25 Apr); defense minister killed;Africa Corps quit Kidal.Foreign actors:Wagner → Africa Corps (~2,000Russians in Mali); China commercial(Niger oil, Mali lithium).Records breaking:63 (2016) → 2,845 (2025);~2,145 in 2026 — on courseto pass 3,000.Two franchises, one turf war:Oct 9: major JNIM–IS-Sahel battle inOudalan, tri-border — IS claims 400+killed; unverified (monitors ~60).Sep 30: JNIM ambushed an Africa Corpspatrol near Niono, central Mali — ≥7killed/wounded, 2 vehicles destroyed(JNIM claim via Democrata).Blockade as strategy:JNIM's fuel/supply blockade ofBamako routes since late 2025 —“the war can now squeeze a capital”.BF 2026: JNIM claimed >130 attacksincl. (claimed 25 Sep) two bases(Aoréma, Klio) in the north.junta townsJNIM ruralIS-SahelSAHEL
Schematic — not precise cartography. April's coordinated strikes on Bamako marked the turning point. In October, Malian and Africa Corps forces re-entered Kidal on Oct 6 without a fight after the FLA withdrew, while the JNIM–IS-Sahel turf war escalated into a major Oct 9 battle in Burkina Faso's Oudalan province — IS-Sahel's claim of 400+ JNIM killed is unverified. Read the explainer

Situation map

Eastern DRC: two fronts, stalled diplomacy

Goma (FRN-held)Bukavu (FRN-held)MinembweMasisi–WalikaleUviraButembo / BeniKalemieUGANDARWANDABURUNDILAKE TANGANYIKATwo fronts, not one:FARDC + Wazalendo regained villagesin Masisi mid-Sep; the Minembwe /Mwenga / Uvira highlands differ.M23's stated aim: march onLubero, Butembo, Beni —the Ugandan buffer blocks them.South Kivu highlands — the hinge:≥200,000 fled since early Feb 2026.October: heaviest fighting in theWalungu highlands + Ruzizi foothills;no significant change (CTP, Oct 28).War economy: Amnesty (21 Sep)alleges executions, torture,forced labor at Rubaya coltan +Lomera gold mines; mineralssmuggled to Rwanda.Wazalendo — pro-government communitymilitias doing much of the frontlinefighting alongside FARDC.Foreign & private actors: Colombian PMCswithdrew to Uvira early Sep; Chinese-madeYitian air-defense captured; FARDC “Owls”special forces deployed.Oct 12: M23 rebranded as the FRN,Kabila its leader (CTP: a rebrand).Oct 28: US sanctioned Rwanda's MoD.FRN (ex-AFC/M23)-heldpro-govtcontestedUgandan bufferE. DRC — AFRICA
Schematic — not precise cartography. On Oct 12 the AFC/M23 rebellion rebranded as the FRN with former president Joseph Kabila as political leader — CTP assesses a rebrand, not a new force. October's heaviest fighting ran through the Walungu highlands and Ruzizi foothills with no significant ground change, and on Oct 28 the US sanctioned Rwanda's defence ministry over FRN support. Read the explainer

Situation map

Myanmar: the junta keeps shrinking

14/17Naypyidaw (junta capital)YangonMuse / KutkaiINDIATHAILANDLAOSCHINA2025 staged elections couldn't be heldacross wide areas — the junta didn'tcontrol the ground.Direction of travel: the juntaadministers less each year —firm control 21–33%;resistance holds ~42%.Brotherhood Alliance collapsed:MNDAA took Kutkai from ex-ally TNLAin March — read as pro-Beijing shift.MNDAA's political wing wentto Naypyidaw for talks.China & Russia “keep the regimeafloat” — weapons, funds, diplomacy;Beijing-brokered ceasefires cutresistance arms flows.Systematic air war on civilians:September was the worst month yet —175 strikes, 650 bombs, 145 civilianskilled (MDSI). October: the AAtightened its grip around Sittwe.Arakan Army: ~14 of Rakhine's 17townships — the country's mosteffective insurgent force.Humanitarian crisis: ~4.5M displaced;up to 16M need aid; 100,114 conflictdeaths tallied since the coup.junta-heldresistance-heldcontested / fluidMYANMAR
Schematic — not precise cartography. The junta's firm control has fallen to 21–33% of the country while the resistance holds ~42%. September was the worst month yet for the air war — 175 strikes and 650 bombs by MDSI's count — and in October the Arakan Army tightened around Sittwe, clearing junta landings on Ngapyi Island. Read the explainer

Situation map

Yemen: the fight for the Red Sea coast

RED SEAGULF OF ADENAl HodeidahSana'a (Houthi capital)Mokha — govt retook Oct 5–6 (reported)MaribTaizAdenDhaleSAUDI ARABIAOMANBAB AL-MANDEBMulti-sided south: Sep offensives spanAl-Bayda, Hudaydah, Jawf, Dhale, Marib,Taiz; Southern Movement resurgence.US: Trump prepared Sep 20 airstrikesat MBS's pleading — then calledthem off (NYT via Reuters).US out of the fight since early 2025.The October reversal:Oct 5–6: govt forces retook Mokha+ the Dhubab airstrip (Reuters) —Houthis deny; extent unverified.Energy shock: with Hormuz closed,Saudi rerouted millions bbl/dayvia East-West pipeline; Houthitargeting pushed Brent past $100.Aid squeeze: since Sep 10,movements to W-coast suspended;no OCHA access to Al Hodeidahsince Sep 9.Taiz: Houthis gained sections of amountain road, tightening theirencirclement (govt sources, Oct 5–6);whether the main route is cutis denied — left contested here.Humanitarian toll: 184,000 displacedsince the war resumed (IOM, Oct) —the southwest coast fighting drovemost of the newest flight.Houthi-heldPLC govt / alignedcontestedYEMEN
Schematic — not precise cartography. September's Houthi blitz took the entire Red Sea coastline — then October partly reversed it: government forces retook Mokha and the Dhubab airstrip on Oct 5–6, per Reuters, though the Houthis deny the claims and the full extent is unverified, so the southern coast and strait islands are now marked contested. Around Taiz, Houthis gained sections of a mountain road. Read the explainer

Situation map

Somalia: the AU draws down

INDIAN OCEANBerberaMogadishuJilibAadan YabaalTeedaanETHIOPIAKENYAAUSSOM drawdown: UNSC Res. 2809 keeps11,826 troops through Dec 31, 2026;UNTMIS closed Oct 31. Oct 29: Ugandabegan withdrawing; Mogadishu askedit to delay in Lower Shabelle.Mission shrinkage: ~22,000 AU troops(mid-2010s) → ~12,000 today;now protecting held towns; funding gap.Post-AUSSOM: security bilateral —Uganda (~2,000, Mogadishu area),Kenya, Ethiopia stay; Türkiye nowthe key partner; US drones stay.Disputed claim: AUSSOM chief says noground lost since Mar 2025 — setagainst recaptures (Teedaan etc.);Sep 28: SNA says it repelled anal-Shabaab attack on Baidoa.Middle Shabelle hotspot:al-Shabaab “concentrated muchof its activity” here in 2026.AFRICOM tempo: 88 strikes in Somaliain 2026 by Oct 17 — near Dhobley(Oct 17) and Bulo Bashiir (Oct 23).govt / AUSSOMal-ShabaabcontestedSOMALIA — HORN
Schematic — not precise cartography. AUSSOM winds down with UNSC Res. 2809 keeping 11,826 troops through Dec 31, 2026, and UNTMIS closed on Oct 31. On Oct 29 Uganda announced it had begun withdrawing after 19 years, and Mogadishu asked it to delay in Lower Shabelle. AFRICOM had logged 88 strikes in Somalia in 2026 by Oct 17. Read the explainer

Visual explainers

Schematics & explainers

Hand-drawn schematic diagrams that accompany our explainers — illustrative, clearly labeled, and linked to the articles they were made for.

Schematic

The Taiwan Strait

China(mainland)Taiwanunofficial median line≈130–180 kmTaiwan Strait
Schematic illustration — not to scale. Roughly 130–180 km wide at its narrowest, separating mainland China from Taiwan. The dashed median line is an unofficial boundary neither side formally recognizes as a border. Read the explainer →

Schematic

The Red Sea chokepoint

Red SeaBab el-Mandeb≈30 km at narrowestGulf of Aden↑ to Suez CanalYemenrerouted shipping → around Africa
Schematic illustration — not to scale. The Bab el-Mandeb strait — about 30 km wide at its narrowest — links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Houthi attacks on shipping here since November 2023 forced many vessels around Africa instead of using the Suez route. Read the explainer →

Schematic

Anatomy of a no-fly zone

Protected airspacecombat air patrolAWACS / refuelingenemy air defenses(must be suppressed)underpinned by a legal mandate (e.g. UN Security Council resolution)
Schematic illustration — not to scale. A no-fly zone is not a line on a map — it is an enforcement operation: aircraft on patrol, air defenses suppressed, and a legal mandate behind it. Enforcement is what makes it hard, costly, and risky. Read the explainer →

Schematic

How combat footage gets verified

Geolocation
Match landmarks, road layouts, terrain to satellite imagery
Chronolocation
Sun angle, shadows, weather vs. the claimed date
File forensics
Metadata, compression history, signs of editing
Provenance
Reverse image search — has this clip appeared before?
Schematic illustration — not to scale. Open-source analysts cross-check footage four ways before trusting it: where it was filmed, when it was filmed, whether the file itself is authentic, and whether it already existed online. Read the explainer →