Drone strikes hit Ethiopia's Jari 2 displacement camp, killing at least 15 people, including five children

Full-scale war continues. On Sep 29–30 Russia launched a massive combined strike — ~190 drones plus ballistic missiles overnight, then 285 more drones on Sep 30 — aimed primarily at Kyiv's energy infrastructure, damaging the Trypillya thermal plant and forcing emergency outages; ISW assesses this opens Russia's Winter 2026–2027 strike campaign meant to degrade Ukraine's energy security and force capitulation. An Oct 1 follow-up injured one person in Kyiv and one in Odesa. On Oct 2–4, Russia struck Kyiv's Dnipro bridges for a fourth straight day: drone hits damaged the Southern and Northern bridges' road surfaces and trolleybus cables, suspending traffic; Russia's Defense Ministry confirmed the strikes, claiming military-logistics use. A Russian drone hit the Northern Bridge again on Oct 4 during German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's unannounced solidarity visit to Kyiv, per CNN; Merz pledged continued support, and the CNN wire reported German officials saying Berlin would release €1 billion in military aid plus €350 million for energy repairs. On Oct 3, President Zelensky told Reuters that Ukraine will double down on attacking Russian oil refineries in response to a new Russian 'doctrine' of airstrikes — documents obtained by Ukrainian intelligence show Moscow authorizing attacks on infrastructure, logistics, roads, schools, and hospitals to force people to leave cities, Zelensky said; the Kremlin was not available to comment, and both sides deny deliberately targeting civilians. Zelensky said the 'Vivaldi' counteroffensive had recaptured around 140 sq km in Donbas and was ongoing; Ukraine announced the first combat use of its FP-7 ballistic missile (~250 km range), with the longer-range FP-9 expected this autumn. Trump last month urged Ukraine not to hit Russian oil installations, saying it was sending global diesel prices surging. On Oct 5, Russia carried out massive overnight air strikes on industrial and port infrastructure in Ukraine's Odesa region — hitting Vylkove port, fuel depots at Chornomorsk and cargo vessels, per Russia's Defense Ministry — while a strike on Kharkiv killed one person and injured six, per the city's mayor; Governor Oleh Kiper said all resulting fires had been extinguished (Reuters). Separately, Ukraine faces its biggest budget crisis since 2022: the war now costs ~$190 million a day, ArcelorMittal has suspended its Kryvyi Rih steel complex after ballistic-missile strikes, grain exports fell 36.6% year-on-year in September, and Kyiv needs $56 billion to plug this year's gap, per a Reuters special report. Diplomatically, Zelensky said on Oct 4 that the US is pushing for technical-level trilateral talks with Russia by the end of October — possibly in the UAE — with Ukraine ready to take part; Kyiv is waiting on Moscow's response. India also stepped up its mediation bid, with FM Jaishankar focusing on Black Sea shipping, grain and energy. On Oct 7, Russia carried out what it called a 'massive' overnight strike across Ukraine, primarily targeting the country's power grid — Ukrainian authorities said dozens were killed, per Reuters. On Oct 8, a Russian bomb struck a street in Kramatorsk where two city buses were operating: at least 12 people killed and 14 wounded, Ukrainian authorities said via Reuters, with no independent confirmation of the toll at publication. Separately, Reuters reported on Oct 8 that US and Russian officials — including special envoy Jared Kushner and Putin adviser Kirill Dmitriev — have held talks about bringing a US investor into the Nord Stream gas pipelines; the White House said there had been 'no Nord Stream discussions recently.' On Oct 8, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the war a 'dangerous stalemate' during a visit to Portugal and said Washington would keep working toward a settlement but would not 'invest in pointless processes'; Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian news agencies the next day that Moscow agreed with the assessment. US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Ukrainian representatives in Miami on Oct 9 — chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov, intelligence chief Rustem Umerov and negotiator David Arakhamia — with national security advisers from the UK, France and Germany plus NATO and EU officials invited, to try to produce a unified peace proposal covering security guarantees and a post-war prosperity plan, per an American source via Reuters; Zelenskiy said he expected Europeans to join the talks in the coming days and that air defences would be on the agenda after more than 70 were killed in strikes over two days. The same week, both sides escalated attacks on economic targets: Yandex said on Oct 9 that a drone attack had completely disabled several modules at its data centre in Russia's Kaluga region — the second such strike in two days after a Thursday hit on its Ryazan centre — while Russia continued its strike campaign on Ukrainian data centres and telecom infrastructure. On Oct 10, a Russian glide-bomb strike on residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia killed 20 people including three children, President Zelensky said (AAP; CNN later reported 23 killed including four children; figures evolved through the day as rescue work continued, with no independent verification). Zelensky tied the strike to the US–Russia diesel deal. On Oct 9, Trump announced a deal with Putin to release Russian diesel onto world markets — 300,000 tons immediately, 500,000 in November — with the US Treasury issuing a general license through April 7, 2027; Russia partially lifted its diesel export ban on Oct 10, per the AAP. Zelensky called the deal 'a weak decision of strong partners' and an 'investment in a war that must be ended, not prolonged,' while a senior Ukrainian official told the Financial Times that Kyiv will keep striking Russian refineries — 'We will burn [Russian] refineries.' On Oct 11, Ukraine struck a third Yandex data centre in four days, in the Vladimir region, per Reuters; the AP attributed the attack to Ukraine while Yandex confirmed only a drone strike. On Oct 25, ISW assessed that Ukrainian forces had liberated Perebudova, Komar and Fedorivka in the Oleksandrivka direction, forcing Russia to redeploy elite naval infantry and tank elements to stop the counterattacks, and that Ukraine's jet-powered drone interception rate slipped only from 77% to about 74% during the mid-October Starshield restrictions. Overnight Oct 25-26, Russian strikes injured six people in Zaporizhzhia and the Chernihiv region, Ukrainian officials said via Reuters. Zelenskiy said Ukraine would halt refinery strikes if Russia stopped hitting power plants. On Oct 29, a Russian drone struck Dnipro's main railway station as passengers boarded, killing 14 people and wounding 10, Ukrainian officials said; at least 19 people were killed across Ukraine that day (CNN; Reuters). ISW's Oct 28 assessment recorded Ukrainian advances southeast of Oleksandrivka and northeast of Hulyaipole, Russian advances north of Kostyantynivka, and continued observance of the limited Kherson (Oleshky) ceasefire. On Nov 1, Russian strikes on power infrastructure in four regions left hundreds of thousands of households without power for a second straight night, Zelenskiy said, while a Ukrainian drone attack damaged an industrial facility in Russia's Kstovo district amid reports a major refinery was hit, Reuters reported. On Nov 2, Ukraine's General Staff said Russia had used the six-day Oleshky humanitarian ceasefire — which expired at 2100 GMT on Sunday after nearly 800 people were evacuated — to rotate units, fortify positions and bring in ammunition; the Kremlin disputed the claim, and shelling and drone attacks resumed across 16 Kherson-region settlements, Reuters reported. On Nov 5, police put the Komyshuvakha aid-centre toll at 42, with up to 33 people still buried under the rubble, after Reuters-verified bodycam footage from a killed police officer recorded the moments before a second strike destroyed the shelter where residents were hiding (Reuters; Kyiv Post). The same day, Putin envoy Kirill Dmitriev attended a White House event hosted by First Lady Melania Trump convening Russian and Ukrainian representatives — the first in-person US–Russia contact since the midterms — ahead of the Nov 10 Abu Dhabi trilateral (Reuters; White House; AP).

A U.S.-brokered ceasefire in effect since October 10, 2025 holds in name but implementation is stalled: Israeli forces control over half of Gaza, Hamas has not disarmed, and reconstruction has not begun. Strikes continue: Israeli strikes killed at least five Palestinians in Gaza City on September 30 (four in a van strike in Tel al-Hawa, one woman in an apartment strike) per Gaza health officials via Reuters. On Oct 3, an Israeli airstrike on the al-Asala apartment building in Gaza City's Remal neighborhood killed at least five Palestinians and seriously injured at least six others, per Gaza health officials and al-Shifa Hospital staff via Reuters and Al Jazeera; the Israeli military did not comment. At least 1,400 Palestinians, mostly civilians, have been killed since the ceasefire took effect, per Gaza health officials; Palestinian authorities put the death toll since October 2023 above 74,000. On Oct 25, Israeli strikes hit the Islamic University of Gaza in Gaza City twice within hours: an earlier drone strike injured seven female students and a second strike killed three university staff while students were in class, AFP and Al Jazeera reported; four more Palestinians were killed elsewhere in Gaza that day. Gaza's health ministry puts the toll since the October 2025 ceasefire at 1,551 killed and the total since October 2023 at 74,544, per Al Jazeera. On Oct 26, the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry reported that Israel had continued to commit genocidal acts in Gaza after the ceasefire, with the intent to destroy the Palestinians in Gaza in whole or in part, and that the Yellow Line had pushed further into Gaza; Israel's mission in Geneva dismissed the report as part of a misinformation campaign, Reuters reported. On Nov 1, Israeli attacks killed at least eight Palestinians, including five police officers, and on Nov 2 strikes in Khan Younis and Al-Mussadar killed at least three more people and wounded six, taking the number killed since the ceasefire to at least 1,580, Gaza health officials said via Reuters; Israel now controls about two-thirds of Gaza, with nearly all of its more than 2 million residents crowded into the remaining third.

War between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces since April 2023. On Sep 26 army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan publicly rejected Washington's reported condition — a U.S. visa for UNGA attendance in exchange for accepting a 90-day ceasefire proposed by U.S. adviser Massad Boulos — telling a Khartoum rally his goal was to 'eliminate this militia, no matter the cost,' per Reuters. The RSF's drone campaign on El Obeid intensified sharply Sep 24–28: strikes attributed to the RSF killed 13 civilians (incl. 8 children) in Al-Jallabiya, knocked out a power substation and fuel station, and forced hospitals and water stations to close per UN OCHA. Military sources reported an unprecedented RSF buildup around El Obeid ahead of a possible ground offensive. The UN describes the world's largest displacement crisis, with over 11 million displaced per UNHCR. On Oct 2, the army said it had captured al-Mazroub in North Kordofan after fierce fighting — one of the RSF's most important positions in the state, per army special forces spokesman Mohamed Deidan, who told Anadolu its capture was a 'major turning point' in cutting RSF supply lines to RSF-held West Kordofan. On Oct 3, the army's Fourth Infantry Division announced a 'knockout blow' against the RSF and its ally SPLM-N in Blue Nile state's Minza and Bashkarkad areas — a claim with no independent confirmation and no RSF comment — while Blue Nile's governor said the RSF launched drone attacks on his residence that were intercepted, again with no RSF comment. Al Jazeera's analysis of ACLED data found ~19.7% of the war's recorded attacks have occurred in Kordofan, second only to Khartoum; ~19.5 million people face acute hunger per the IPC. On Oct 6, army chief al-Burhan publicly rejected negotiations, vowing to retake 'every inch' of territory and continue the 'military option' until the RSF was removed from Sudan, per Al Jazeera. On Oct 7, a local charity group (the Dar Hamar Emergency Committee) said an RSF attack killed 10 civilians in West Kordofan; the IOM said more than 5,500 people were displaced from villages in Blue Nile state over three days. The US envoy Massad Boulos said peace must come through a Sudanese-owned dialogue toward a civilian-led government, while the US State Department said neither side represents legitimate governance. UNHCR said in an August 2026 assessment that more than 2.5 million people had returned to Khartoum State (against a pre-war 9.4 million) but that 'relatively few' had returned to homes in an adequate liveable condition. On Oct 26, one year after El Fasher fell following an eighteen-month siege, the UK sanctioned 15 senior commanders from both the RSF and the SAF for suspected atrocities including conflict-related sexual violence, and announced £5 million for survivors and £10 million in humanitarian funding; UK-funded Centre for Information Resilience reporting found the El Fasher siege tactics — systematic starvation, sexual violence, drone attacks on civilian infrastructure and obstruction of aid — are still being used across Sudan by both sides. On Nov 2, Khartoum said it had filed complaints against Ethiopia with the UN Security Council and the African Union's Peace and Security Council, alleging the RSF launched drone attacks from Ethiopian territory against civilian sites and power stations — a Sudanese report alleging 70 attacks since February involving 187 drones that killed or wounded 484 civilians; Ethiopia denied the allegations and said it respects Sudan's sovereignty, Al Jazeera reported. On Nov 2, drone strikes reported against three more electricity substations — New Halfa and Aroma in Kassala state and al-Ghazali in Northern State — brought reported strikes on the electricity network to 18 in a week, Al Jazeera reported; on Nov 3, UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator Denise Brown warned the strikes appear to target civilian infrastructure systematically, said hundreds of aid trucks were stranded for lack of fuel and that dialysis treatment for 25 people stopped at a hospital outside Khartoum, and said she did not know where the strikes originate from.